India must boost ties with Maldives without taking sides in its politics

India must boost ties with Maldives without taking sides in its politics 

• The conviction of former Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen by a criminal court in the Maldives just a year ahead of general elections could affect his plans to lead the PPMPNC opposition alliance. 
• He faces 11 years in prison and a $5 million fine after being found guilty of corruption and money laundering links to a company he was accused of taking kickbacks from, during his tenure as President (2013­2018).

Rough relationship with India 

• The Maldives Constitution disqualifies any candidate convicted of criminal charges and sentenced to a term of more than a year unless they are later acquitted or a three­year period has elapsed since their release. 
• In a sense, history has now come full circle for Mr Yameen, as he had pursued cases against his predecessor Mohamed Nasheed and ensured that he would step down in favour of his party colleague Ibu Solih ahead of the last election. 
• The conviction was his second in three cases. Mr Yameen had a rough relationship with India during his presidential term after he declared an emergency in the island state. 

“INDIA OUT” Campaign

• As opposition leader he has spearheaded the “India Out” campaign, and has been unrepentant despite the latest verdict, trying to link his incarceration to pressure from India. 
• Given the inimical relationship, as well as Mr Yameen’s past close links with China, there may be some relief in South Block over the possibility of Mr Yameen’s disqualification. 
• However, the Government needs to tread carefully when it comes to domestic politics roiling its close maritime neighbour. 

India Eyeing for a Base

• India’s infrastructure aid, credit lines, loans, and commissioning of various projects (Greater Male Connectivity Project, Hanimaadhoo airport, Hulhumale cricket stadium, Gulhifalhu port) have meant high visibility. 
• In addition, close ties and high­level military exchanges since 2018 have raised speculation that India is eyeing a base. Even as the Solih government has been prompt in countering Mr. Yameen’s allegations, condemning the “India Out” campaign, and arresting a senior opposition leader for threatening violence against the Indian High Commission, the protests have gained some traction in parts of the country. 

Keeping a close eye on Maldivian Politics

• While Mr Yameen may not be allowed to run in the next election, this might make space for even more radical elements in the opposition to combine. 
• New Delhi must keep a close watch on other parts of Maldivian politics, including the rift between India’s closest friends there, President Solih and former President Nasheed, who is threatening to split the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party. 
• Despite having obvious favourites in the polity, New Delhi must actively project the image of a friendly and helpful neighbour without explicitly seeking to sway next year’s election in any direction.