GDP growth may exceed 7% fiscal 2022-23 year

GDP growth may exceed 7% this fiscal, says CEA

• The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7% as compared to 9.1% in 2021-22.
• Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran expressed hope that the GDP growth for the current financial year will exceed the projected 7% in view of the expected revision of high-frequency data.
• the second advance estimate released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) maintained the growth projection of 7% as was projected in the first advance estimate which was released in January.
• “Given the high-frequency indicators and the pace at which they are recovering, I do believe that the current year’s (GDP numbers)... are more likely to (be) revised upward than downward,” he said here.
• Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹159.71 lakh crore as against the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of ₹149.26 lakh crore.
• The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7% as compared to 9.1% in 2021-22, the NSO had said.
• The growth slowed to 4.4% in the October-December quarter, mainly due to a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as per the data released by the NSO.
• The NSO revised GDP growth data for the past three years — 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 — and also released the second advance estimate of GDP for 2022-23.
• While the growth rate for 2021-22 has been revised up by 40 basis points to 9.1% from 8.7%, the GDP for 2020-21 to has been revised upwards to (-) 5.8% from (-) 6.6%.
• For 2019-20 also, the growth has been revised upwards to 3.9% from 3.7%.
• Nageswaran said the rising interest rates need not necessarily be a cause of lower growth but simply reflect the fact that there is a healthy underlying demand for credit.
• Real interest rate is not very high at the moment, he said, adding there is pent-up demand in certain sectors.
• About rural inflation remaining high, he said it doesn’t take into account the fact that the bulk of the population may be getting their essential food grains at zero cost.
• On the economic benefit of digitization, he said that digital transactions enable an increase in formalization.